Read the document @ http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograp…
A report prepared for the US Airforce
Air Force planners are charged with designing an air force that can fly, fight, and win tomorrow’s wars. In doing so, it helps to have a sense of what tomorrow looks like, particularly with respect to how it differs from today. Many of the changes that will take place between today (2011) and, say, 2050 are, for all practical purposes, unpredictable. Nevertheless, there are a few factors for which one can confidently assert that tomorrow will differ in specific ways from today. Technology is one. Demographics—the age and geographic distribution of future populations—are another. Thus, while forecasting, in general, may seem no better than throwing darts, it may be useful to first move the dartboard in the direction of knowable change.
