Demographic Trends

TREND: Populations in the developed world will continue to age, while the developing world grows younger and more urbanised leading to differing usage patterns and competing demands on the information environment. Hyperconnectivity expands the influence and role of migrants and diasporas.

Migration to Urban Areas in the Developing World

The World Business Council for Sustainable Development argues in its Vision 2050 report (see page 3) that substantial changes will be necessary in all countries to accommodate the projected additional 2 billion increase in the global population by 2050 – particularly as 98% of this growth is predicted to take place in developing and emerging economies. The 2012 World Economic Forum Global Information Technology report (see page 114) notes that despite that while increases in Internet connectivity and the availability of online content and services will support future economic growth in remote or rural areas, demographic studies indicate large scale migration to cities and metropolitan areas continues to be a defining global trend.

The 2011 United Nations World Urbanization Prospects study (see page 4) forecasts that the world’s urban population will reach 6.3 billion by 2050 (up from 3.6 billion in 2011). Most of the projected growth in the world’s population will be concentrated in the cities of the developing world. As a consequence, the 21st century is likely to see an expanding number of megacities in Asia and Africa with over 10 million inhabitants (see page 5).

This trend will see millions of people aggregating together in densely populated and rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, which will generate significant logistical and infrastructural challenges, associated with the administration of water, power and shelter (Evaluation of Spatial Information Technology Applications for Mega City Management, University of Mainz, 2009, page 1). In the context of these challenges, hyper-connected technology assisted solutions; both in the management of urban infrastructure, and in the delivery of government services and healthcare could play a pivotal role in enhancing the living standards for residents of these sprawling conurbations (Global Information Technology Report 2012, page 114). The US National Intelligence Council’s 2012 report (see page ix) that information technology-based solutions to maximize citizens’ economic productivity and quality of life while minimizing resource consumption and environmental degradation will be critical to ensuring the viability of megacities.

An Ageing Population in the Developed World

According to 2012 figures released by the UN on Population Aging and Development, by 2050 the number of people worldwide aged 60 years or over will increase to 2 billion, outnumbering the number of children (0-14 years) for the first time in human history. Based on declining birth rates and rising life expectancies, the OECD predicts that by 2050 4% of the world population (and 10% of the OECD nations population) will be over 80 years old (OECD 2011, page 62). By 2030 the European Union is expected to be home to 30% of the global population over 65 (European Commission, The World in 2025, page 9).

Given that the percentage of the population active in the labour market is one of the key drivers of future economic growth, an ageing population will pose challenges for the growth prospects and world market competitiveness of many advanced economies (speech by a member of the ECB Executive Board, 2010). It is also suggested that demographic decline and a rising elderly population will compel governments and employers to maximise the contributions of new technologies to growth whilst placing a greater emphasis on retraining and lifelong learning and the recruitment of groups with lower workforce participation (RAND 2004, page 1).

A 2011 paper from the Harvard Program on the Global Demography of Ageing identifies a further trend – the “compression of morbidity” (see page 2). This describes the process by which technological and medical advances, combined with healthy lifestyles have both increased longevity, but also compressed the so called “morbid years” (the period during which the elderly lose functional independence through mental and physical deterioration) into a smaller part of people’s lifecycles. This means that significant numbers of employees will be able to work productively into later life – particularly when this work depends on problem solving, communication and collaboration as opposed to manual labour.

Decentralised and flexible working patterns such as telecommuting (2011 report from Japanese Ministry for Communications, page 3), alongside advances in networked telehealth and telecare systems (see Digital Agenda Action 78), and the emergence of progressively more intuitive user interfaces (such as those offered through touch screen and tablet computing – The Computer Journal 2009, page 847) will all enhance the capacity of the elderly to remain economically active for longer. In addition, the rising proportion of those over 60 in the developed world will lead to an increasing amount of digital content and services being directed at this target market (Harvard 2011, page 9).

The Role of Diapsoras increases in a Hyper-connected World

According to the European Commission in 2025 there will be nearly 250 million migrants, with 65% of these communities living in the developed world. There is evidence to suggest that these diaspora communities are harnessing advances in information and communication technologies to develop online communities and networks which are becoming of increasing strategic importance in the development arena (USAID Report 2008, page 2). Digital diaspora networks also have the capacity to offset the negative effects of flight of human capital from their countries of origin by facilitating knowledge transfer and technology transfer between the diaspora and their homelands (Diaspora Knowledge Flows in the Global Economy, 2010, page 1). A 2010 study by the University of Bergen identified that digital diasporas offer a forum for on-going online historical debates or “web wars” between Poland, Russia and Ukraine (see page 2). A 2012 paper from the University of New Jersey on the Korean diaspora community in the US demonstrated that virtual environments helped users reconnect with their home country and led to a less essential ethnic identity perception based on transnational ties and hybrid cultural practices (see page iii).