Technological Trends

 This category looks at a selection of technological trends including:

  • Vast and expanding data sets acquired by governments and companies through their interactions with Internet users (in conjunction with that generated by scientific research, surveillance and smart object sensors), combined with an accelerated capacity to process and analyse information will expand the possibilities for innovative public/commercial services whilst simultaneously enabling sophisticated profiling of individuals and social groups.
  • Mobile will become the primary platform for access to information content and services which will empower new socio-economic groups through transforming access to healthcare, education and government/financial services.
  • Advances in artificial intelligence will enable a) next generation of web browsers to move beyond key word analysis and evaluate the specific content of websites/pages (the semantic web); b) networked devices to combine speech recognition, machine translation and speech synthesis to support real time multilingual voice translation; and c) cloud based crowd sourced translation checking of webpage text.
  • The capacity of 3D printing technology to create information-based physical objects using digital blueprints will revolutionise the concept of “access to information”.

Big Data

TREND: Vast and expanding data sets acquired by governments and companies through their interactions with Internet users (in conjunction with that generated by scientific research, surveillance and smart object sensors), combined with an accelerated capacity to process and analyse information will expand the possibilities for innovative public/commercial services whilst simultaneously enabling sophisticated profiling of individuals and social groups

The relentless flow of mouse clicks, touch screen interactions, messages, user generated content, credit card transactions, completed online forms and search queries (and more) have all contributed to the generation and acquisition of vast data sets currently held by governments and companies through their interactions with Internet users. According to McKinsey (see page vi) in the US 15 out of 17 industry sectors now hold more data per company than the US Library of Congress (which held 235 terrabytes of data as of April 2011). In addition, the collection of scientific research and surveillance data, coupled with the proliferation of networked devices and smart objects (see the Internet of Things below) has led to a further expansion of these huge stockpiles of data. Rapid improvements in the capacity of technology to process and analyse this data (often in real time) has created new economic opportunities (see page 4). A 2012 report from Intel (see page 4) suggested that innovations in data platforms and analytics enable companies to mine new sources and volumes of information (such as web data and social media data) that were previously too unwieldy or unmanageable to effectively process.

In March 2012 the International Data Corporation forecast that global revenues from the capture and exploitation of big data will reach $16.9 billion by 2015 (IDC 2012). A 2011 report from McKinsey (see page 8) projects the potential value of currently existing data sources could add €250 billion of annual value to Europe’s public sector administration and $300 billion of potential annual value to US healthcare. However, the benefits of increasingly intelligent and automated data collection and processing on such an unprecedented scale must also be balanced against concerns about the privacy and security of personal information. The aggregation of multiple data sources could allow organisations and governments to build sophisticated profiles of individuals without their knowing consent. A consumer backlash against this trend could undermine the future availability and legality of such potentially commercially/socially valuable processes.

Building upon the trend toward big data, the number of smart objects equipped with sensors and the capacity to communicate online is expanding at an exponential rate. According to estimates the number of networked devices exceeded the number of people on the planet for the first time in 2011 (World Economic Forum 2012, page 47). Industry projections suggest that by 2050 the scale of automated machine-to-machine traffic could mean that connected devices outstrip the number of connected human beings by six to one (Ibid). The exploding quantities of sensory and environmental data produced by these devices (ranging from pacemakers and tumble driers to street lights and vending machines) – coupled with increasing capacity to rapidly administer and analyse large data sets – will facilitate the development of complex automated services and smart objects ranging from everyday appliances to infrastructure.

Mobile becomes the primary platform for access to information, content and services

TREND: Mobile will become the primary platform for access to information content and services which will empower new socio-economic groups through transforming access to healthcare, education and government/financial services.

Mobile has already become the primary means of accessing the Internet across the world. Increasing speeds and adoption rates of mobile broadband will transform access to healthcare, education and empower new socio-economic groups. Since 2010 mobile broadband subscriptions have overtaken fixed broadband subscriptions and January 2012 global mobile broadband subscriptions serve over a billion users (World Economic Forum 2012, page 67-68). Forecasts suggest that by 2016 more than 80% of broadband subscriptions will be mobile, with a further 1 million connections being added every day fostered by the rollout of 3G and 4G technologies (Ibid). 

According to Cisco’s Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast 2011-2016 (see page 3) by 2016 there will be over 10 billion mobile devices connected to the Internet with the Middle East and Africa experiencing a 104% increase in mobile data traffic (followed by Asia and Eastern Europe at 84% and 83% respectively). A 2012 report from McKinsey (see page 41) notes that more than 50% of global Internet users are now in developing countries and their number is projected to grow at five times the rate of users in the developed world. Most of this growth will be driven by mobile Internet access in a context 70% of Egyptian internet users, 59% of Indian internet users and 50% of Nigerian internet users primarily access the web through their mobile phones (see page 42).

This projected expansion of mobile Internet access, alongside the expanding availability of mobile content, applications and services will transform the lives of millions of people across the globe. In the field of health mobile broadband will expand public access to information, reduce costs and inefficiencies whilst facilitating remote care and communication with medical professionals – with further implications for the management of chronic disease, elderly care and the training of health workers (Qualcomm – Healthcare). A recent case study from Qualcomm shows how the Wireless Heart Health Project in China is distributing 3G smartphones equipped with cardiovascular monitoring sensors to under resourced community clinics which transmit patient heart data to heart specialists in Beijing who can then provide real time feedback to patients. In a context where the World Health Organisation has projected that China stands to lose an estimate $558 billion between 2005 and 2015 from cardiovascular diseases (World Economic Forum 2012, page 72) the benefits of mobile sponsored health services, particularly in remote or underserved areas will be substantial. For further case studies covering Egypt, the Philippines and South Africa please click here.  A 2010 report by McKinsey and GSMA “mHealth: a new vision for healthcare” (see page 5) estimates that remote monitoring through mobile devices could save $175-$200 billion in annual healthcare costs for managing chronic diseases in the OECD and BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries.

In the field of education, previously identified trends towards online learning and MOOCs will be significantly amplified by mobile Internet access. A report from the European Commission’s e-learning portal (see page 2) claims that mobile learning (or m-learning) was at the top of the agenda of leading e-learning 2012 conferences in London, Sydney, German and Switzerland. A report forecasting trends in m-learning during 2010-2015 (see page 6) predicts that the global market will rise to $9.1 billion by 2015, with the highest growth rates in Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe. A 2011 study by the Mastercard Foundation and GSMA, focused on Ghana, Morocco, Uganda and India emphasised the “rich promise” of m-learning in a context where 75 million young people in the developing world are unemployed and many lack access to basic education and employment opportunities (see page 2).

In a survey of 1,200 young people across these countries 63% believed they could learn through even a basic mobile device, with 39% most interested in m-learning services which develop their professional skills, and 27% most interested in language lessons (see page 5). A 2011 report from Alcatel Lucent “M-Learning: A Powerful Tool for addressing Millennium Development Goals” (see page 7) highlights that while only 25% of homes in developing countries have computers, one of the most important benefits of m-learning is “its inherent capability of reaching people through devices which before long will be in the pockets of every human being on the planet”. The study also stressed that through m-learning students were able to access the most up-to-date content from anywhere through a range of video, audio and text-based applications which can be repeatedly reviewed to increase comprehension and understanding (Ibid).

Advances in Artificial Intelligence

TREND: Advances in artificial intelligence will enable a) next generation of web browsers to move beyond key word analysis and evaluate the specific content of websites/pages (the semantic web); b) networked devices to combine speech recognition, machine translation and speech synthesis to support real time multilingual voice translation; and c) cloud based crowd sourced translation checking of webpage text

Research continues to enable the next generation of search engines and web browsers to evaluate and assess the specific content of pages/sites (as opposed to simply reading meta data, tags or identifying key words). If implemented effectively the semantic web would revolutionise the efficiency of search with a correspondingly positive impact on access to information and research productivity. However, this same technology could have negative implications in relation to tracking, censorship and monitoring/blocking content.

In a context where three quarters of the global population (and just under a three quarters of global Internet users) do not speak English, language still represents a significant barrier to access to information where English remains (closely followed and soon to be surpassed by Chinese) the leading language on the web (Internet World Stats). However, recent advances in combining speech recognition, machine learning, machine translation and speech synthesis technology may have the capacity to support real time multilingual voice translation via any Internet enabled device within the near future.

Despite the perennial problems of adapting to slang, regional accents and culturally specific idioms and concepts – pioneering approaches using deep neural networks (Microsoft) and cloud-based crowd sourced sentence checking (Google) are showing significant promise. In conjunction with related developments in webpage translation methods, this trend has the potential to dissolve many of the barriers which limit access to multicultural content, and has particularly exciting implications for visually impaired Internet users.

3D Printing - Access to Physical Objects Created by Information

TREND: The capacity of 3D printing technology to create information-based physical objects using digital blueprints will revolutionise the concept of “access to information”.

Widespread adoption of 3D printing technology will revolutionise the concept of “access to information” given its capacity to create information-based physical objects using digital blueprints and designs. Alongside its transformative impact on manufacturing (by drastically increasing efficiency and reducing costs) there are also other significant implications in terms of increased counterfeiting/ intellectual property infringement. 

Some argue that in light of the dramatic consequences for music copyright as a result of the convergence of the Internet, digitised music and media players, 3D printing technology may have similar implications for artistic copyright, design right, trademarks and patents, but in a rather more diverse legal framework (The Intellectual Property Implications of Low-Cost 3D Printing, 2010, page 29).

A 2011 Study by the Atlantic Council “Could 3D Printing Change the World” contended that 3D printing could introduce both a manufacturing revolution and a fundamental shift to the global economy (see page 12). The report identifies a broad range of potential impacts, including increased productivity in ageing societies (as a result of reduced labour requirements and health costs), low-cost on demand local production of products in the developing world (reducing transport costs and waste), the reduction of global economic imbalances (the localisation of production limits reliance on imports), the creation of new industries and professions, as well as trillions of dollars of new income for businesses based both on innovative products and services – as well as the legal fees associated with intellectual property dispute and resolution services (Ibid).

The 2012 study from the US National Intelligence Council “Global Trends 2030” (see page 87) adopts both a positive yet also cautionary stance:

New manufacturing and automation technologies such as additive manufacturing (3D printing) and robotics have the potential to change work patterns in both the developing and developed worlds. In developed countries these technologies will improve productivity, address labor constraints, and diminish the need for outsourcing, especially if reducing the length of supply chains brings clear benefits. Nevertheless, such technologies could still have a similar effect as outsourcing: they could make more low- and semi-skilled manufacturing workers in developed economies redundant, exacerbating domestic inequalities. For developing economies, particularly Asian ones, the new technologies will stimulate new manufacturing capabilities and further increase the competitiveness of Asian manufacturers and suppliers.

In May 2012 the charity techfortrade launched the 3D4D challenge offering a $100,000 prize for innovative projects which leverage 3D printing technologies that foster collaboration around social and economic issues in the developing world. The winning project (WOOF) enables waste plastic (from bottles for example) to be used as the raw material for 3D printing. This presents an opportunity to manufacture a wide range of low cost products from waste plastic including toilets and water collectors (Economist November 2012). Trials to address local issues in water and sanitation will begin in Mexico during 2013 in association with the NGO Water for Humans.